Conditional probability occurs when it is given that something has happened. (Hint: look for the word “given” in the question. The probability that a tennis player wins the first set of a match is ...
"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...
a priori Probability: the probability that we determine from knowing the process by which the uncertain event happens (by logically examining existing information). Certain Event: event that is sure ...