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rickdanoff on Instagram: "Extreme Value Theory (EVT): Modeling Catastrophic Market Moves Bottom line: EVT models extremes—the biggest gains and losses—using fat-tailed distributions instead of Gaussian bells. Before the 1987 crash, EVT estimated a 24% one-day decline as a 50-year event. The market fell 20.4% the very next day. Normal distributions catastrophically underestimate tail risk. EVT captures magnitude, not timing—it won’t save you from losses, but it explains why they happen. Core conc

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